Institutional Money, Ausgabe 2 | 2026

Foto: © Christoph Hemmerich Tail Risks THEORIE & PRAXIS 2/2026 | institutional-money.com 95 'HPQDFK VLQG /LTXLGLWÌWVSXȬHU 'LYHUVLlj NDWLRQ XQG 5HVHUYHQ NHLQH LQHȯ]LHQWHQ 5HQGLWHEUHPVHQ VRQGHUQ GLH VWUDWHJLVFKH $QWZRUW DXI HLQH IXQGDPHQWDOH 8QVLFKHU KHLW Ľ:HQQ LFK &DVK DXI GHU 6HLWH KDEH PXVV LFK NHLQH .XUVSURJQRVHQ PDFKHQĺ VR 7DOHE Ľ:HQQ LFK NHLQHV KDEH PXVV LFK YRUKHUVDJHQ NĆQQHQ 8QG ZHQQ LFK 6FKXOGHQ KDEH PXVV LFK VRJDU VHKU JHQDX YRUKHUVDJHQ NĆQQHQĺ 'DPLW YHUNQĞSIW HU GHQ VFKHLQEDU JHJHQVÌW]OLFKHQ %HUHLFK GHU %LODQ]VWUXNWXU PLW GHP 5LVLNRPD QDJHPHQW 9HUVFKXOGXQJ EH]LHKXQJVZHLVH JHKHEHOWH ,QYHVWPHQWV HU]ZLQJHQ LQ :LUN OLFKNHLW 3URJQRVHIÌKLJNHLW Wohlstandsverteilung :RPLW 7DOHE LP 5DKPHQ VHLQHV ,0. $XIWULWWV EHL HLQHP 3XQNW ODQGHWH GHU DNWXHOO GDV 8PXQG$XI DQ GHQ0ÌUNWHQ LVW *HRĆNRQRPLH $QKDQG GHU *UDljN Ľ0DNUR ĆNRQRPLVFKH 5HDOLWÌWĺ PDFKW HU GHXWOLFK ZDUXP HQWZLFNHOWH 9RONVZLUWVFKDIWHQ VWUXNWXUHOO LQ HLQHU VFKZLHULJHUHQ /DJH VWH FNHQ DOV RIW DQJHQRPPHQ 'LH 6 .XUYH ]HLJW GDVV VLFK &KLQD LQ GHQ HU -DK UHQ DPXQWHUHQ (QGH GHU:RKOVWDQGVNXUYH EHIDQG 0LW MHGHU ,QYHVWLWLRQ LQ ,QIUDVWUXN WXU OLHĕ VLFK GDPDOV HQRUPHV %,3:DFKVWXP JHQHULHUHQ 'HU $XIVWLHJ YHUOÌXIW IROJHULFK WLJ VWHLO ELV GDV 3ODWHDX HUUHLFKW ZLUG ł GDV 1LYHDX DXI GHP VLFK (XURSD XQG -DSDQ KHXWH EHZHJHQ Ľ'LH /HEHQVVWDQGDUGV GRUW VLQG HQRUP GHU OHEHQVZHUWHVWHQ 6WÌGWH GHU :HOW OLH JHQ LQ (XURSDĺ UÌXPW 7DOHE HLQ Ľ$EHU GDV 3UREOHP LVW GDVV HV NHLQ :DFKVWXP JLEW :DV NHLQ JURĕHV 3UREOHPZÌUH ZHQQ PDQ UHLFK LVW XQG QLFKW ]ZDQJKDIW ZDFK VHQ PXVV :HQQ PDQ 6FKXOGHQ KDW PXVV PDQ DEHU ZDFKVHQĺ 'LH %HGLHQXQJ GLH VHU 6FKXOGHQ VHW]W MHGRFK HLQ QLFKW PHKU JHQHULHUEDUHV :DFKVWXP YRUDXV :ÌKUHQG &KLQD ĽHLQIDFK HLQHQ ZHLWHUHQ %DKQKRI EDXHQĺ NĆQQH XQG $IULND PLW HLQHU 6FKXOH HLQHU 6WUDĕH HQRUPH %,3 (ȬHNWH HU]LHOH VHL (XURSD LQ HLQH /DJH JHUDWHQ LQ GHU GLH 9HU VFKXOGXQJ QLFKW PHKU GXUFK RUJDQLVFKHV :DFKVWXP DXIJHIDQJHQ ZHUGHQ NĆQQH 'LHVH 6FKXOGHQ ]ZLQJHQ QXQ ODXW 7DOHEV 'HQNPRGHOO 3URJQRVHQ ]X WUHȬHQ XP 6WUDWHJLHQ ]X HQWZLFNHOQ GLH GDV 6FKXOGHQ SUREOHP PLQLPLHUHQ 'RFK JHQDX GLHVH 3URJQRVHQ YHUVDJWHQ GRUW ZR ([WUHPH GDV %LOG EHVWLPPHQ XQG GDV (UJHEQLV VHL HLQH $NNXPXODWLRQ YRQ )UDJLOLWÌW GLH VLFK LQ GHQ NODVVLVFKHQ5LVLNRPRGHOOHQ QLFKW DEELO GHQ ODVVH Ľ,P -DKU DOV ZLU GLH ŸONULVH KDWWHQ KDWWHQ ZLU GLHVH 6FKXOGHQODVW QLFKW XQG GLH :HOW ZDU DXFK QLFKW VR YHUQHW]W 7DLO (UHLJQLVVH VLQG KHXWH GHXWOLFK PÌFK WLJHU ZDV DXI GLH *OREDOLVLHUXQJ VRZLH GLH ljQDQ]LHOOHQ XQG RSHUDWLYHQ +HEHOZLUNXQ JHQ ]XUĞFN]XIĞKUHQ LVWĺ VR 7DOHE )UDJLOLWÌW VR VHLQH ]HQWUDOH 7KHVH ODVVH VLFK KLQJHJHQ VHKU ZRKO PHVVHQ 1LFKW GXUFK GLH 9RUKHUVDJH HLQ]HOQHU (UHLJQLVVH VRQGHUQ GXUFK GLH %HREDFKWXQJ GHU %HVFKOHXQLJXQJ YRQ 6FKÌGHQ EHL ZDFKVHQ GHU %HODVWXQJ :HU DXV HLQHP0HWHU +ĆKH VSULQJH YHUOHW]H VLFK NDXP :HU DXV ]HKQ 0HWHUQ VSULQJH ZHLW PHKU DOV GDV =HKQ IDFKH Ľ$OOHV ZDV ]HUEUHFKOLFK LVW ZHLVW %HVFKOHXQLJXQJ DXIĺ VR 7DOHE Ľ8QG GHU *UDG GLHVHU %HVFKOHXQLJXQJ JLEW HLQHPGDV $XVPDĕ GHU )UDJLOLWÌW ĺ Theoretische Grundlage =XJUXQGH OLHJW DOO GLHVHQ ł WHLOV UHFKW SROH PLVFK YRUJHWUDJHQHQ ł 7KHVHQ HLQ $QVDW] GHQ 7DOHE JHPHLQVDP PLW (OLH &DQHWWL 7LGLDQH .LQGD (OHQD /RXNRLDQRYD XQG &KULVWLDQ 6FKPLHGHU LP HUVFKLHQHQHQ ,:) $UEHLWVSDSLHU Ľ$1HZ+HXULVWLF 0HD VXUH RI )UDJLOLW\ DQG 7DLO 5LVNV $SSOLFDWLRQ WR 6WUHVV 7HVWLQJĺ HQWZLFNHOW KDW 6WDWW ]X YHUVXFKHQ HLQ HLQ]HOQHV 6]HQDULRPĆJOLFKVW SUÌ]LVH ]X UHFKQHQ ZLUG GDV (UJHEQLV HLQHV » Wenn ich Cash auf der Seite habe, muss ich keine Kursprognosen machen. Wenn ich kein Cash habe, muss ich vorhersagen können. Und wenn ich Schulden habe, muss ich sogar sehr genau vorhersagen können. « Nassim N. Taleb auf dem Institutional Money Kongress 2026

RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy ODI5NTI=